Inspired by the NFL playoffs in January, I wrote an invention disclosure on how to merge player statistics with current field conditions to yield a visual probability of how a play might turn out.

The end result I envisioned was that you could watch the game on television as a spectator (or in real time as a competing coach) to see what the outcome the system predicted at the start of a field goal or 3rd down pass, for example.

As a sports fan the technology adds value to what broadcasters currently provide with digital first down markers and 3D play analysis.

As a coach, you could confidently plan what your next play would be. If the likelihood of scoring a touchdown was high, you could more quickly decide whether to kick the extra point or go for a two-point conversion ahead of time.

Beyond American football, the technology could be applied to many other situations, such as ice hockey, as well as non athletic events.

• Example Embodiment #1: Field Goal
  In the NFL, a place kicker lines up to attempt a field goal. Using statistical data about the player (his history of successful field goals from this distance in this stadium) as well as sensor or other real time data about conditions on the field, the system overlays a heat map onto the image on the television screen, showing solid orange where the kick is likely to go (and fading opacity farther away from the center based on the probability). This provides a good indication where the kick will end up, and whether it will be successful. (Figure 1)

  Figure 1: Likely outcome of field goal attempt in this context
  

• Example Embodiment #2: Pass Play
  In the NFL, a quarterback has his team lined up in a pass formation. Using statistical data about the player (his history of passes from this field position in this stadium) as well as sensor or other real time data about conditions on the field, the system overlays a heat map onto the image on the television screen, showing orange where the ball is likely to go (and fading opacity farther away from the center based on the probability) and yellow highlights the probable receiver. This provides a good indication where the pass will end up, or to which player he will pass. (Figure 2)

  Figure 2: Likely receiver of the pass and field position of the catch in this context
  

• Example Embodiment #3: Hockey shootout
  In the National Hockey League (NHL), a hockey game has goes into overtime and comes to a shootout to determine the winner. Using statistical data about the player (his history of one on one shots against this goalie in this venue) as well as sensor or other real time data about conditions on the ice, the system overlays a heat map onto the image on the television screen, showing orange where the puck is likely to go (and fading opacity farther away from the center based on the probability). This provides a good indication where the player will shoot.

IBM decided not to pursue a patent, but published the idea to protect the intellectual property. The full article is available behind a paywall at IP.com.

Would be interesting if this serves as prior art for any later invention that gets implemented.

Well, not exactly this week. I gathered a few links from the end of January that I figured would have some blogworthiness to them.

Instead of dedicating a whole post to each, here they are with a bit of commentary.

First up, because it’s my sister’s first appearance on TV, are Mona‘s remarks to local news in St. Louis on what the female demographic means to this year’s presidential campaigns. While it is a Fox affiliate, congrats are still in order. :)

Yossi Leon announced that Zend Studio for Eclipse was tantalizing close to release. We heard a few more details at NYPHP about its launch. The Zend page carries the official announcement.

If you’re wondering exactly how the new Zend Studio for Eclipse differs from the Eclipse PDT (PHP Development Tools), this chart breaks it all down.

Jon Udell backs up my “.htm is dogsqueeze” argument in his much more eloquent .NET-specific rant, .aspx considered harmful.

I caught a glance of this article on naming the Triborough Bridge for Robert F. Kennedy in the New York Times.

I too am a little weary of the Kennedy badge on so many public buildings, but have an alternate suggestion… Rename the bridge for John F. Kennedy, and rechristen his namesake disaster of an airport for someone worthy of its reputation for mismanagement, George W. Bush.

And finally, though it pains me greatly to see Tom Brady’s name on a Web site I lovingly crafted for all that is good, there is an interesting press release on how IBM and the NFL have gone about making all those random stats available to announcers in real time.

That about wraps it up. Enjoy the weekend, I know I will.

It seems the 1990 season of good breaks finally caught up with the Giants. That year, everything went right for Big Blue, from a last minute bomb from backup Jeff Hostetler against Phoenix to a missed field goal by Buffalo kicker Scott Norwood in the Super Bowl.

This year, they were finally put out of their penalty-ridden, injury-laden misery by the Eagles on a last second kick by David Akers in the first round of the NFC playoffs. Which is for the best, I think, because my blood pressure can return to normal and I can again enjoy watching football in the coming weeks.

Without Tiki Barber, the offense will be missing one of the best backs in the NFL, but by trading Eli Manning (please!) for one or more more promising offensive players, I’m sure the Giants can put together a more disciplined unit in 2007. Maybe even behind short yardage star Jared “The Hefty Lefty” Lorenzen… :)

Doug Flutie makes the first drop kick in 64 years. Amazing. This is particularly freaky since I was reading this article in the December issue of Maxim the day before while waiting for a haircut.

This alternative to a place kick is still technically legal – players behind the line of scrimmage can boot an impromptu field goal at any time. Old NFL footballs resembled a rugby ball, allowing for controlled bounces, and guys like Jim Thorpe kicked it regularly. The Bears’ Ray McLean converted it last on a PAT in the NFL championship game in 1941. Hey, Vanderjagt, why not kick like a real man?

“The Trinity College football team extended its winning streak to 28 games with a 14-0 win over the Middlebury College Panthers. The streak is the nation’s longest in Division III and second only to USC (29 entering today) in all of college football. The win also gives Trinity 499 wins in its 120-year football history.”

Wow. The team wasn’t that bad back when I was playing (Best Record in NESCAC, 1996), but that is out of control. :)